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中国煤炭供给能力一直是学术界讨论热点,但鲜有研究揭示出价格与供给间的基本规律,而这在煤炭运营全面市场化的背景下尤为重要.根据煤种、产地和硫分的差异,归纳出19个区域的51种供给曲线,并在不同煤种价格差异主要由产品类别决定这一假设基础上,借助计量经济学和校准技术,得到了19个区域原煤的供给回归方程和51个不同区域煤种的供给曲线方程.以2011年为基准年份的分析表明:中国煤炭市场均衡价格和数量分别为809元和34.01亿吨,在现有产能约束下,当各地煤炭价格上涨50元时,全国煤炭供给增量为1.19亿吨,其中无烟煤、烟煤、次烟煤和褐煤各为0.16、0.21、0.69和0.13亿吨,但各地的供给弹性和持续供给能力表现各异,此时全国低硫煤的供给增量为0.68亿吨.研究结果对当前的煤炭市场化改革、供给战略设计和清洁能源供给都有着重要的政策启示意义.
However, few studies have revealed the basic law between price and supply, which is particularly important in the context of the full marketization of coal operation.According to the differences of coal type, origin and sulfur content, Based on the hypothesis that the price difference of different coal is mainly decided by the product category, with the help of econometrics and calibration technology, the supply regression equation of the supply of raw coal in 19 regions and 51 Supply curve equation of coal in different regions The analysis based on 2011 base year shows that the equilibrium price and quantity in China’s coal market are respectively 809 yuan and 3.501 billion tons. Under the existing production capacity constraints, when coal prices in other parts go up by 50 yuan The national coal supply increased to 119 million tons, of which anthracite, bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal and lignite were 0.16, 0.21, 0.69 and 0.13 tons respectively, but the performance of supply elasticity and sustainable supply varied from place to place. At this time, The increment of coal supply is 68 million tons, and the research results have important policy implications for the current coal market reform, supply strategic design and clean energy supply.