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天山南坡的萨雷扎兹-库玛拉克河流域在中国阿克苏河协合拉水文站以上面积为12816km2,发育有冰川3195.41km2,冰川覆盖率25%.根据1957—2006年流域站点观测的降水、气温及其径流资料,通过最大熵方法计算了流域冰川物质平衡的逐年变化.结果表明:流域冰川径流深约为895mm,全流域河川径流深为381.3mm,冰川融水占协合拉站控制流量的58.65%,冰川融水变化对流域水资源量的影响非常明显.1957—2006年平均年径流量为48.64×108m3,径流在1993年后急剧增加,1994—2006年的平均年径流量比1957—1993年的增加了10.56×108m3,即增加了23%.由于负物质平衡消耗了大量过去积累的冰川冰,冰川融化对河流额外补给.初步计算,在过去50a由于气温升高引起的冰川净消融额外补给河流的径流量达309.47×108m3,相当于每年径流增加达6.19×108m3,约为年径流量的13%.1957—1993年流域冰川消融对河流的额外净补给量为5.3×108m3,占河流总径流量的11%;1994—2006年流域冰川消融对河流的额外净补给量为8.8×108m3,占河流总径流量的18%.随着气候变暖,虽然降水量增加,但冰川对气温的敏感性更大,冰川消融量加快,冰川融水量持续增加.到21世纪末,随着气温上升和降水增加,年均径流相对1991—2006年将增加11.75×108m3,增幅为22%.
The Salizand-Kumarak Basin on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains has a total area of 12,816 km2 at the Xiehe Hydrological Station in China’s Aksu River with 3195.41 km 2 of glaciers and 25% of glacier coverage. Based on the precipitation observed at the basin sites of 1957-2006 , Temperature and its runoff data, the yearly change of glacial mass balance was calculated by maximum entropy method.The results show that the depth of glacier runoff in the basin is about 895mm, the depth of runoff in the whole basin is 381.3mm, 58.65% of the total discharge, glacial melt water changes have significant impact on the amount of water resources in the basin.The average annual runoff from 1957 to 2006 was 48.64 × 108m3, runoff increased sharply after 1993, the average annual runoff ratio from 1994 to 2006 An increase of 10.56 × 108m3 was achieved in 1957-1993, an increase of 23%. As the negative material balance consumed a large amount of glacial ice accumulated in the past, glacial melting provided additional recharge for the river. According to preliminary calculations, during the past 50 years, glaciers caused by rising temperatures Net run-off of additional recharge rivers amounted to 309.47 × 108 m3, equivalent to an annual runoff increase of 6.19 × 108 m3, accounting for about 13% of annual runoff. 1957-1993 An additional net recharge of rivers by glacial melt abatement The amount of net recharge of the river was 8.8 × 108m3, accounting for 18% of the total river runoff. From 1994 to 2006, Precipitation increases, but the glacier is more sensitive to temperature, the glacier ablation volume is accelerating, glacier melt water continued to increase. By the end of the 21st century, with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the annual average runoff from 1991 to 2006 will increase by 11.75 × 108m3 , An increase of 22%.