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农资价格波动不利于农资经营活动的有效开展,并影响农业生产的正常进程。本文运用时间序列成分分解法对国内农资价格的波动特征进行分析,并建立VAR模型,分析影响农资价格波动的主要因素。结果发现,农资价格大幅上涨最根本的原因是上游原料价格飚升,是一种成本推动的刚性上涨,需求因素的影响较小,且仅表现为短期影响。
Fluctuations in agricultural capital prices are not conducive to the effective operation of agricultural capital operations and affect the normal course of agricultural production. In this paper, the time series composition decomposition method is used to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of domestic agricultural prices, and the establishment of VAR model to analyze the main factors that affect the price fluctuations of agricultural resources. The results show that the most fundamental reason for the sharp rise in agricultural capital prices is that the price of raw materials in the upstream soars, which is a cost-driven and rigid increase. The impact of demand factors is small, and only shows short-term effects.