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我国以不到世界7%的耕地养育了占世界22%的人口,并创造了前所未有的农业经济增长奇迹,令世界瞩目。然而我们却不能忽略这样一个严峻现实,耕地逐年减少,人口逐年增多,人均耕地面积已从建国初期1950年的2.7亩降到目前不足1.5亩。1984年我国粮食产量4000亿公斤,人口10亿,人均占有粮食400公斤,达到世界平均水平1996年我国的粮食产量为4900亿公斤,而当年我国人口升至12.24亿,人均占有粮食只有392公斤,反而低于1984年的水平。这说明新增粮食被新增的人口消耗掉了,导致人均占有粮食水平下降。据预测,中国人口总量在2030年将达到16亿,而全国的耕地面积每年却还在以百万亩计的速度减少。矛盾如此尖锐,美国经济学家布朗为此惊呼:未来谁来养活中国?几乎引起了世界性的一阵恐慌。
With less than 7% of the cultivated land in the world, our country has raised 22% of the world’s population and created an unprecedented miracle of agro-economic growth, attracting world attention. However, we can not ignore the grim reality that arable land has been declining year by year and that the population has been increasing year by year. The per capita arable land area has dropped from 2.7 mu in 1950 to less than 1.5 mu in the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic. In 1984, China produced 400 billion kilograms of grain and a population of 1 billion with a per capita possession of 400 kilograms of grain, reaching the world average. In 1996, China’s grain output was 490 billion kilograms. In that year, China’s population rose to 1.224 billion and the per capita possession of grain was only 392 kilograms, But lower than the level of 1984. This shows that the newly added grain has been consumed by the newly increased population, resulting in a decrease in the per capita possession of food. It is estimated that the total population of China will reach 1.6 billion by 2030, while the national arable land area will still decrease at a rate of one million mu per year. Contradictions so sharp, the United States economist Brown exclaimed: who will feed China in the future? Almost caused a worldwide panic.