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目前,基于地震情景的地震灾害风险评估的新的确定性方法 (Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment,NDSHA)具有一定的可行性,这种方法在大范围内把可能震源作为起点,通过全波形建模而获得震害。该方法并不利用衰减系数,而是通过获取地震动的实时序列,包括地动位移的可靠评估值来做工程分析。根据新的确定性方法,开发了一个地震灾害风险评估的完整的预测程序,此程序采用CN和M8S算法,定义基于时间的地震动情景,从而例行更新地震预报。这一完整的用于地震输入定义的NDSHA程序采用不同的模式识别技术,应用地震动仿真模型算法,目前已在意大利境内得到实际应用,目的是预测大地震发生的时间和地点。由此,运用该方法定义了基岩地面运动的一系列确定性地震情景,即在区域或局部范围尺度上的地震易发区内预测强震发生的时间间隔。自2006年开始,在地震活跃区域,应用CN和M8S算法和基于时间的地震动情景预测法进行周期性更新预测。基于时间的NDSHA预期应用证明了该方法提供的信息可以分配减灾优先级、及时制定减灾方案,其提出的方法论已得到严格的验证。2016年8月24日意大利中部发生了M6.2地震,这种基于时间的NDSHA地震情景的实时测试结果在这次特定地震中得到了论证。
At present, the Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) based on the earthquake scenario has some feasibility. This method uses the possible source as a starting point in a wide range, Modeling and get damage. Instead of using the attenuation coefficient, this method does engineering analysis by obtaining real-time sequences of ground motions, including reliable estimates of ground motion displacements. According to a new deterministic approach, a complete prediction program for seismic disaster risk assessment has been developed that uses CN and M8S algorithms to define time-based seismic motion scenarios to routinely update earthquake prediction. This complete NDSHA program for the definition of seismic inputs uses a variety of pattern recognition techniques and the Geodynamic Simulation Model algorithm has now been used in Italy to predict the timing and location of major earthquakes. Thus, a series of deterministic seismic scenarios of bedrock ground motion are defined using this method, that is, the time interval for predicting the occurrence of strong earthquakes in an earthquake-prone area on a regional or local scale. Since 2006, cyclically updating forecasts have been made in areas with active seismicity using CN and M8S algorithms and time-based seismic motion prediction methods. The time-based NDSHA prospective application proves that the methodologies provide information that can prioritize disaster reduction and develop disaster mitigation options in a timely manner, and that the proposed methodology has been rigorously validated. The M6.2 earthquake occurred in central Italy on August 24, 2016. The real-time test results of this time-based NDSHA earthquake scenario were demonstrated in this particular earthquake.