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文章在扩展经济趋同理论研究框架的基础上,建立了抚养负担影响经济增长的可识别方程,并利用2000-2007年我国县级层面数据进行了实证检验,研究发现:老年和少儿抚养负担的加重对经济增长均有非常显著的负向影响,并且前者的影响更大;居民健康水平对经济增长有非常显著的正向影响;选择更为合理的衡量居民健康水平的指标对正确识别健康与抚养负担对经济增长的真实影响非常重要。文章指出,随着我国人口老龄化趋势的加快,伴随人口生育水平下降的少儿抚养负担的减轻和居民健康水平的改进可能仍不足以抵消老年抚养负担加重对经济增长的负向影响。
Based on the expansion of the research frame of economic convergence theory, the article establishes a recognizable equation of dependency burden on economic growth and conducts an empirical test based on county-level data from 2000 to 2007 in China. It is found that the burden of raising the elderly and children is aggravated Have a very significant negative impact on economic growth, and the former has a greater impact; residents ’health level has a very significant positive impact on economic growth; choose a more reasonable measure of residents’ health indicators to correctly identify health and rearing The true impact of the burden on economic growth is very important. The article points out that with the acceleration of population aging in our country, the reduction of children’s dependency burden and the improvement of residents’ health level along with the decrease of population fertility level may still not be enough to offset the negative impact of the increasing burden of elderly dependency on economic growth.