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本文应用自动领先指数(ALI)模型建立了我国沿海港口集装箱月度吞吐量的短期预测模型,综合反映港口发展、贸易金融、中国与世界经济对沿海港口集装箱吞吐量的影响。分析得出的港口集装箱吞吐量预测结果与实际值较为吻合,实践证明该模型的短期预测效果要明显优于AR基准模型。
In this paper, the short-term forecasting model of monthly throughput of China’s coastal port containers is established by using the automatic leading index (ALI) model, which comprehensively reflects the influence of port development, trade finance and China’s and the world’s economy on the container throughput of coastal ports. The forecast result of port container throughput obtained by the analysis is in good agreement with the actual value. Practice has proved that the short-term forecasting effect of this model is obviously better than the AR baseline model.