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阿尔奇安的论文“不确定性、演化和经济理论”至今仍主导着经济学界对“惯例”、“模仿”等关键术语的理解。本文的研究却发现,这一论文的论证中存在着三大谬误:以低风险模型替代不确定性模型的谬误、惯例有价值的蒙特卡洛谬误以及假设非一贯性的谬误,其所建立的从不确定性到人类惯例化行为以及个体模仿及试错行为的逻辑推演并不成立。循着在厘清这些谬误过程中逐步明晰起来的分析思路,本文还提出了理解不确定性下惯例显性存在并发挥作用的可能路径。
Archiean’s essay “Uncertainty, Evolution and Economic Theory” still dominates the economists’ understanding of key terms such as “convention” and “imitation.” However, the research in this paper finds that there are three fallacies in the argumentation of this thesis: the fallacy of replacing the uncertainty model with the low-risk model, the Monte Carlo fallacy of the conventional value, and the fallacy of assuming the non-consistency. The logical deduction from uncertainty to the practice of humankind and individual imitation and trial and error does not hold. Following the analytical ideas that are gradually clarified in clarifying these fallacies, this article also proposes possible ways to understand the existence and function of the convention under uncertainty.