论文部分内容阅读
文章对金融危机期间,中国对美国的出口下跌进行详细的结构分解研究。利用2007~2009年中国出口到美国22类HS-10分位产品的月度数据,将出口增长率的变化分解为数量效应、价格效应、老产品退出效应和新产品进入效应,再通过与墨西哥对美国出口的比较分析,深入探讨金融危机期间中国出口下降的深层机理,这将有利于了解中国对外贸易的优劣势,优化出口商品结构,提升应对未来可能发生的国际风险之能力。研究表明中国对美出口下降主要受数量效应的影响,下跌幅度不大,主要得益于价格效应的正向抵消作用,而老产品退出效应和新产品进入效应的影响较小。
Article on the financial crisis, China’s exports to the United States to conduct a detailed breakdown of structural studies. Using the monthly data of China’s exports of HS-10 products to 22 HS-10 categories from 2007 to 2009, the change of export growth rate is divided into quantity effect, price effect, withdrawal effect of old products and new product entry effect. Then, A comparative analysis of US exports and in-depth discussions on the deep mechanism of the decline of China’s exports during the financial crisis will help to understand the advantages and disadvantages of China’s foreign trade, optimize the structure of export commodities and enhance the ability to deal with possible future international risks. The research shows that the decline of China’s exports to the United States is mainly affected by the quantitative effect, with a slight decline, mainly due to the positive offsetting effect of price effects. However, the exit effect of old products and the entry of new products have less impact.