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在全球气象灾害频发背景之下,中国稻谷减产预期增强。早稻产量明显下降,农户惜售情绪抬头,收购难度增大。同时受其他品种价格走高带动,早稻价格呈现高开高走态势。但气象条件好转之后,增产预期回升,此外,政策性稻谷持续投放,早稻价格受到压制,预计后期主要体现为“跟涨”特征。东北地区气象条件好转,粳稻单产同比提高,加之播种面积增幅显著,产量增长已成定局,但近年来粳稻库存消耗严重,价格持续走高,市场补库需求强烈,收购市场竞争激烈,粳稻开秤价格同比大幅上涨。东北地区加工产能增长势头迅猛,粳稻价格存在出现非理性上涨的可能性。
In the context of the frequent meteorological disasters in the world, China’s rice production is expected to increase. The output of early rice decreased significantly, farmers reluctant sentiment rise, the acquisition more difficult. At the same time driven by higher prices of other varieties, the price of early rice showed the trend of Gaokaidizouzao. However, after the weather conditions improved, the increase in production is expected to rebound. In addition, the policy-oriented rice will continue to be put on the market and the price of early rice will be suppressed. It is expected that the latter will be mainly characterized by “follow up”. In Northeast China, the meteorological conditions improved, the unit yield of japonica rice increased year-on-year, combined with the significant increase of sown area and the increase of output. However, in recent years, the inventory of japonica rice was seriously consumed, the prices continued to rise, the demand for replenishment in the market was intense and the market for acquisition was fierce. grow rapidly. Northeast processing capacity growth momentum rapidly, there is an irrational price increase in the possibility of rice.