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背景:上世纪90年代初日本爆发的房地产泡沫破裂,是世界各国历史上迄今为止最大也是最深的一次房地产危机,十几年过去了至今仍无完全恢复的迹象。最近有人认为上海将发生类似日本泡沫破裂的危机,由于目前中国经济以及上海房地产与泡沫破裂时日本所处的阶段和状况完全不一样,上海绝对不会发生类似情况,这样的判断是不现实和没有根据的。但是由于日本泡沫扩张和破裂的直接原因是日元升值和基础货币过多,与中国目前面临人民币升值压力和基础货币过多的情况相似,因此分析日本房地产泡沫破裂的经验教训有着积极的意义。
Background: The burst of the real estate bubble that broke out in Japan in the early 1990s is the largest and deepest real estate crisis in the history of various countries in the world. After more than a decade, there is still no sign of complete recovery. Recently some people think that there will be a crisis like the Japanese bubble burst in Shanghai. Since China’s economy and the real estate market in Japan are in a completely different stage and status when the real estate bubble collapses, a similar situation in Shanghai will definitely not happen. Such a judgment is unrealistic. Groundless However, the direct reason for the expansion and collapse of Japan’s bubble is that the appreciation of the yen and the excess of basic currency are similar to the current situation of China facing the pressure of RMB appreciation and excessive monetary base. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the experiences and lessons of the burst of Japanese real estate bubble.