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互联网上每天充斥着大量入侵与攻击事件,已经严重威胁到网络安全,如何把握网络目前安全态势并预测其发展趋势已成为国内外网络应急响应的热点研究内容之一.根据网络安全事件发生的统计规律性,分别研究了基于时间序列的神经网络和灰色系统理论对未来一段时间内的安全事件数量进行预测的方法,并在此基础上对未来的安全态势进行评估,从而得知网络的整体安全运行状况,有效指导了管理员对网络安全的控制.
Every day, a large number of incidents of intrusion and attack are flooded on the Internet, which has seriously threatened the network security. How to grasp the current security situation and predict its development trend has become one of the hot research topics of network emergency response at home and abroad.According to the statistics of network security incidents Regularity, the methods of forecasting the number of security incidents in a period of time based on time series neural network and gray system theory are respectively studied, and on the basis of this, the future security situation is evaluated to know the overall security of the network Health, effectively guide the administrator of network security control.