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通过对连续26年系统测报资料分析研究,明确了豫西南麦区小麦条锈病流行程度与小麦品种抗性状况、早春菌源基数、3月下旬至5月上旬雨日、雨量、雾露日、平均气温等气象条件关系密切,提出了病害中期预测的综合分析预测法和预测指标,选择4月上旬末病田率、4月份降水系数和4月中旬至5月上旬日均温,建立了病害发生程度预报式,历史回测拟合准确率达95.4%,2007～2008年预测检验,表明预报结果与发生实况相一致。
Through the analysis and study of 26 years of systematic data, the epidemiological characteristics of wheat stripe rust and the resistance of wheat cultivars in spring wheat in southwestern Henan Province, the base number of early spring germplasm, the rainy days in late March to early May, the rainfall, Average temperature and other meteorological conditions are closely related to the mid-term forecasting of the disease proposed a comprehensive analysis of prediction and forecasting indicators, select the end of April disease rate, precipitation in April and mid-April to early May average daily temperature, the establishment of a disease The degree of prediction of occurrence, historical backtesting accuracy of 95.4%, 2007-2008 forecast test, indicating that the forecast results consistent with the occurrence of the situation.