本文从最基本的经济学框架,即经济增长的供给面与需求面,具体到中国人口结构的独特性、房地产泡沫风险、投资需求等方面,分析影响中国未来十年经济增长的影响因素。并进一步考察中国出现资产、信用大周期拐点的迹象。最后对未来十年中国经济增长面临的挑战提出了改革的方向。 This article analyzes the influential factors that affect China’s economic growth in the next ten years from the most basic economic framework, that is, the supply and demand side of economic growth, the uniqueness of China’s population structure, the real estate bubble risk and investment demand. And further examine signs of asset inflows and credit cycles in China. Finally, the reform of China’s economic growth in the coming decade presents the direction of reform.