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利用最大熵Maxent模型并结合GIS技术对中麻黄在我国的生态适宜性进行预测,以寻找影响中麻黄适宜性分布的主要生态因子及适宜生长区域。对采集到38份中麻黄样本和从CVH中获得的116条中麻黄分布信息运用ArcGIS技术进行分析。利用MaxEnt模型对中麻黄在我国的生态适宜区进行预测。中麻黄MaxEnt模型ROC曲线训练数据集和测试数据集的AUC依次分别是0.986,0.958,均大于0.9,趋近于1。中麻黄较高适宜度主要集中在甘肃西部、青海东部、新疆西北部、内蒙古中部和西藏东北部。模型运算得出的中麻黄生境适宜度具有很高的准确度和可信度,表明MaxEnt模型对中麻黄在中国潜在分布区的预测效果非常好。为野生资源的探测和栽培区域的选择提供参考依据。
The maxent entropy Maxent model and the GIS technology were used to predict the ecological suitability of ephedra in our country in order to find out the main ecological factors and the suitable growth region of ephedra suitability distribution. ArcGIS technology was used to analyze the distribution of ephedra in the collection of 38 samples of ephedra and 116 samples obtained from CVH. Using MaxEnt model to forecast Ephedra in China’s ecologically suitable area. The AUC of ROC curve training dataset and test dataset of MaxEnt model were 0.986,0.958, which were both greater than 0.9 and close to 1. Higher suitability of ephedra mainly in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, Xinjiang, northwestern, central Inner Mongolia and northeastern Tibet. The fitness of ephedra in the model calculation has a high degree of accuracy and credibility, indicating that the prediction of the potential distribution of ephedra in China by the MaxEnt model is very good. Provide a reference for the detection of wild resources and the selection of cultivation areas.