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空间碎片碰撞预警工作主要针对的是可监测的较大空间碎片,预测航天器与碎片之间的碰撞风险,并根据一定的预警判据来评估风险的大小,进而做出合理的轨道规避决策.碰撞概率是碰撞风险评估的重要依据.复合体尺寸、交会距离和误差是影响碰撞概率的三个决定性因素.当复合体尺寸与交会距离差别不大时,误差因素对碰撞概率结果起着决定性的作用.在利用整天误差计算碰撞概率的基础上,提出了利用精化误差计算碰撞概率的方法,在危险交会分析中取得了良好的效果.
The early warning of space debris collision is mainly aimed at detecting larger space debris, forecasting the collision risk between spacecraft and debris, and assessing the risk according to certain pre-warning criteria so as to make a reasonable orbit evasion decision. Collision probability is an important basis for collision risk assessment.Complex size, intersection distance and error are the three determinants of impact probability.When the complex size and intersection distance is not significantly different, the error factor on the collision probability is decisive On the basis of using all-day error to calculate the collision probability, a method of using the error of precision to calculate the collision probability is proposed, and good results have been obtained in the analysis of dangerous intersection.