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基于2001—2012年我国工业行业的环境数据和经济数据,采用LEAP情景分析方法测算未来影响我国工业行业结构调整的污染物的相关数据,利用LMDI分解技术构建行业规模、行业结构、能源强度和技术效应四个影响因素分解模型,测算未来我国工业行业SO2排放的潜力。结果表明,在三种不同情景中,BAU情景和低硫政策情景的减排效果最好,受挫低硫情景效果最差。低硫政策情景下,未来工业结构调整的减排潜力可达到-1350.23万吨,能源强度减排潜力可达到-1500.14万吨,治理效应减排潜力可达到-119.78万吨。在BAU情景下,未来工业结构调整减排潜力可达到-990.47万吨,能源强度减排潜力可达到-1377.92万吨,治理效应因素减排潜力可达到-242.37万吨。
Based on the environmental data and economic data of China’s industrial sector from 2001 to 2012, the LEAP scenario analysis method is used to calculate the data of future pollutants affecting the industrial restructuring in China. The industrial scale, industrial structure, energy intensity and technology Effect of four factors decomposition model to calculate the future of China’s industrial SO2 emissions potential. The results show that among the three different scenarios, the BAU scenario and the low-sulfur policy scenario have the best emission reduction effect and the worst-case scenario of the setback sulfur-deficiency scenario. In the scenario of low-sulfur policies, the emission reduction potential of industrial restructuring in the future can reach -13,502,300 tons, the potential for energy intensity reduction can reach -15,010,400 tons, and the emission reduction potential of governance effects can reach -119,780 tons. Under the BAU scenario, the potential for future industrial restructuring and emission reduction can reach -9,904,700 tons, the potential for energy intensity emission reduction can reach -13,779,200 tons, and the emission reduction potential of governance effect factors can reach 2,243,700 tons.