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美联储1月25日表示,联邦基金利率处于历史超低水平将至少维持到2014年下半年。当日,国际期货市场反应敏锐,有色金属、能源、化工品期货品种大幅反弹,大部分农产品期货也出现上扬,美元指数大幅回落(见图1)。1月25日至2月10日,国际期货市场仍然以上扬为主,但涨势有所回落,有色金属市场、能源市场、化工产品和豆类期货仍保持上扬走势,同时,供需面较宽裕的农产品期货大幅下跌,美元指数仍然保持冲关81关口上方后的持续回落走势,从而支撑国际商品市场价格在高位整理(见图2)。美国、日本、欧元区和一些新兴经济体在年初的宽松货币政策是此轮商品市场反弹的主要原因。2012年,宽松货币政策可能将陆续出台,对商品市场产生重要影
The Federal Reserve said on January 25 that the federal funds rate will remain at historically low levels until at least the second half of 2014. On the very day, the international futures market reacted sharply. The non-ferrous metals, energy and chemical futures rebounded sharply. Most of the agricultural futures also rose and the US dollar index dropped sharply (Chart 1). From January 25 to February 10, the international futures market continued its upward trend. However, the gains were somewhat lower. The non-ferrous metal market, energy market, chemical products and beans futures kept their upward trend. At the same time, the supply and demand side was relatively prosperous Of the sharp decline in agricultural futures, the dollar index remained above the barrier off after the 81 mark continued downward trend in support of the international commodity market prices are finishing (see Figure 2). The loose monetary policy of the United States, Japan, the euro zone and some emerging economies at the beginning of the year was the main reason for the rally in this round of commodity markets. In 2012, loose monetary policy may be introduced one after another, which will have an important impact on the commodity market