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1994年中国经济走势如何? 中国社会科学院和国家统计局的经济学专家,于日前作出分析与预测。 这份被称作1994年中国经济形势分析与预测的《春季报告》,是由社科院前副院长、现特邀顾问刘国光主持,社科院数量经济与技术经济研究所所长李京文和国家统计局总经济师邱晓华等负责的一个课题组作出的,课题组成员包括社科院经济学科片和国家统计局的多位经济学研究人员。 利用模型模拟和实证分析相结合方式预测宏观经济走势,已被国际经济学界视为较先进的分析和预测方法。用这一方法对我国经济形势作出分析和预测的科研课题给,其分析预测分为《春季报告》和《秋季报告》。 本刊上一期刊登的《1994年宏观调控的总体对策》,是在去年《秋季报告》基础上提出的对策建议,该课题组对1994年经济走势所作的《春季报告》,主要观点如下。
How did China’s economy move in 1994? Economic experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the National Bureau of Statistics made an analysis and forecast a few days ago. The so-called “Spring Report”, which was called the analysis and forecast of the economic situation in China in 1994, was chaired by Liu Guoguang, former associate dean of the Academy of Social Sciences and now invited consultant. Li Jingwen, director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics at the Academy of Social Sciences, And the chief economist of National Bureau of Statistics Qiu Xiaohua and other responsible for a task force made, task force members include the Academy of Social Sciences and the National Bureau of Economic Economics, a number of economic researchers. Predicting the macroeconomic trend through the combination of model simulation and empirical analysis has been regarded as a more advanced analytical and forecasting method by the international economic community. In this method, the scientific research subject for analyzing and forecasting the economic situation in our country is given. Its analysis and prediction are divided into “Spring Report” and “Autumn Report.” The “Overall Measures for Macro Adjustment and Control in 1994” published in the first issue of this issue is the countermeasure and proposal put forward on the basis of the “Autumn Report” last year. The main points of the “Spring Report” made by the group on the economic trend in 1994 are as follows.