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从社会经济、运输能力及经济效益、能源消耗、安全可靠性、环境保护等方面建立铁路可持续发展的客观评价指标体系,采用层次分析法与模糊识别理论相结合的多级模糊综合评价方法进行计算,对我国铁路的可持续发展性进行纵向定量评价。纵向评价结果显示,当前我国铁路处于“弱可持续发展”级别,在可持续发展阶段中属于中等偏下状态。其中能源资源消耗状况处于基本可持续发展级别,显示了铁路运输方式的优势;但运输安全状况值得关注,需要增强对运输安全的管理和技术投入。
The objective evaluation index system of railway sustainable development is set up from the aspects of social economy, transportation capability and economic benefits, energy consumption, safety and reliability, and environmental protection. The multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method combining AHP and fuzzy identification theory Calculation, longitudinal quantitative evaluation of the sustainable development of China’s railways. The result of longitudinal evaluation shows that at present, China’s railway is at a level of “weak sustainable development” and belongs to the middle-lower stage in the stage of sustainable development. Among them, energy and resource consumption is at the basic level of sustainable development, which shows the advantages of the railway transportation mode. However, the transportation safety situation deserves our attention and the management and technical investment in transportation safety need to be strengthened.