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通过对我国投资的产业链效应分析,本文认为,我国经济转型比预期的难度大、且需要一个艰难的转型过渡期:第一,长期高投资已经造成了投资自身的产业链条,因而降低投资率会直接导致产业链相关企业的收入和就业下降;第二,经济转型过程中可能会出现需求结构与供给结构不匹配的情形,因此,降低投资率需要相关企业产品结构的转型。在长期则需要通过要素分配、财税政策、产业政策和知识产权保护政策的综合改革,实现由政府主导投资推动增长的角色,向普惠型创新激励政策转换,以建立源于内生增长的长期发展机制。
Through the analysis of the industrial chain effect of investment in our country, this paper argues that the economic transformation in our country is more difficult than expected and requires a difficult transitional transition period. First, the long-term high investment has caused its own industrial chain investment, thus reducing the investment rate The income and employment of related enterprises in the industry chain will be directly reduced; secondly, the demand structure may not match with the supply structure in the process of economic restructuring. Therefore, reducing the investment rate will require the transformation of the product structure of the relevant enterprises. In the long run, through the comprehensive reform of the policy of factor distribution, fiscal and tax policies, industrial policies and intellectual property protection, the role of government-led investment in promoting growth needs to be transformed into a Pratt & Whitney-type innovation incentive policy in order to establish long-term growth from endogenous growth Development mechanism.