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目的预测海宁市甲型肝炎的发病率,为制定防制策略提供依据。方法运用灰色系统方法建立GM(1,1)模型,对海宁市2004—2011年甲型肝炎发病资料进行预测研究。结果剔除暴发疫情数据后得到的预测模型为X^(0)(k+1)=8.323e-0.201 1k,经拟合优度检验,后验差C值为0.20,P值为1.00,模型预测精度等级为1级,但外推预测比拟合预测的相对误差要大。结论 GM(1,1)模型应用于甲型肝炎预测尚有效,但仍需进一步完善。
Objective To predict the incidence of hepatitis A in Haining City and provide the basis for the development of control strategy. Methods Gray system method was used to establish GM (1,1) model to predict the incidence of hepatitis A in Haining city from 2004 to 2011. Results The predictive model obtained after excluding the outbreak data was X ^ (0) (k + 1) = 8.323e-0.201 1k. The goodness-of-fit test showed that the posterior difference C value was 0.20 and the P value was 1.00. The level of accuracy is level 1, but extrapolation predictions are larger than the relative error of the fit prediction. Conclusion The application of GM (1,1) model in hepatitis A prediction is still valid, but still need further improvement.