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目的分析2013—2015年陕西省手足口病流行病学特征和流行趋势。方法对2013—2015年陕西省手足口病疫情进行描述性流行病学分析,采用流行控制图法预测2016年发病趋势。结果 2013—2015年陕西省累计报告手足口病病例191 562例,其中重症病例2 630例,死亡35例,年平均发病率为169.31/10万,病死率为0.02%。发病高峰在4—7月;西安、渭南、咸阳是最主要的高发地区。实验室诊断手足口病病例共9 183例,其中肠道病毒71型(EV 71)、柯萨奇病毒A16型(CoxAl6)和其它肠道病毒分别占34.28%,20.05%和45.67%。流行控制图法预测2016年1~10周陕西省手足口病实际发病数略低于目标值。结论通过对既往监测资料的分析,确定陕西省手足口病的预警线和行动线,为相关决策制定提供理论依据。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and prevalence of HFMD in Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2015. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis of HFMD in Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2015 was conducted, and the epidemic control chart method was used to predict the incidence trend in 2016. Results A total of 191 562 HFMD cases were reported in Shaanxi Province during 2013-2015, of which 2630 were severe cases and 35 were fatal, with an average annual incidence of 169.31 / 100,000 and a case fatality rate of 0.02%. Peak incidence in April-July; Xi’an, Weinan, Xianyang is the most important high-incidence areas. A total of 9 183 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were diagnosed in laboratory. Among them, EV 71, CoxAl6 and other enteroviruses accounted for 34.28%, 20.05% and 45.67%, respectively. The epidemic control chart predicts that the actual incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province is slightly lower than the target value in 1 ~ 10 weeks in 2016. Conclusion Through the analysis of previous monitoring data, we can determine the warning line and action line of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi Province and provide a theoretical basis for the decision-making.