为能够更准确地预计倾角50°左右煤层开采引起的地表沉陷,通过相似材料实验获取大量的实验数据,实验数据处理后得到地表静态下沉和水平移动曲线。分别基于概率积分法和皮尔森Ⅲ型函数法预计模型拟合地表静态下沉和水平移动曲线,分析拟合的参数、误差相关性以及中误差的情况,对比得出皮尔森Ⅲ型函数法更适合于倾角50°左右煤层开采沉陷预计。 In order to predict the surface subsidence caused by coal seam mining with a dip angle of 50 ° more accurately, a large number of experimental data are obtained through experiments on similar materials. After the experimental data are processed, the surface subsidence and horizontal displacement curves are obtained. Based on the probability integral method and the Pearson Ⅲ type function method, the model is fitted to the static subsidence and horizontal movement curves respectively, and the fitting parameters, the error correlation and the medium error are analyzed. Suitable for subsidence of about 50 ° mining subsidence is expected.