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1987年初我们受托研制华东地区石油供需模型,一年多来在有关部门和单位的大力支持帮助下,现已取得初步成果。 本模型由石油供应和石油需求两个子模型组成。关于石油供应模型,本文主要介绍了运用线性回归、线性规划和定性分析三种预测方法,对原油和成品油(主要是轻质油)作了1990、1995和2000年三个预测年份两种方案的生产量预测。关于石油需求模型则主要介绍了运用参数仿真模型方法对成品油的消费量作了高、中、低三种方案的预测。对于石油供需预测,除了可采用上述模型外,还有其它一些模型可供选择,限于篇幅,本文未作一一对比分析。
At the beginning of 1987, we were entrusted with developing the oil supply and demand model in East China. Over the past year and more, with the strong support of relevant departments and units, preliminary results have been achieved. The model consists of two sub-models of oil supply and oil demand. As for the petroleum supply model, this paper mainly introduces three forecasting methods: linear regression, linear programming and qualitative analysis. The crude oil and refined oil (mainly light oil) are made into three forecast years of 1990, 1995 and 2000 respectively Production forecast. On the oil demand model is mainly introduced the use of parametric simulation model for refined oil consumption made high, medium and low three kinds of programs to predict. For the oil supply and demand forecast, in addition to the above model, there are other models to choose from, limited to space, this article did not make a comparative analysis.