气象灾害使得路网内所能容纳的最大流量发生变化,进而影响路网的容量可靠性。通过分析不利天气对交通网络的影响,采用灾度的概念定量描述不利天气对路网的影响程度。依据不利天气出现的概率、灾度与路网交通量之间的函数关系,得出应急预警阶段某时段路径及路网流量为某一水平的概率,结合路网容量可靠性模型及算法,得出不利天气下路网容量可靠性。最后通过算例的计算分析验证了其有效性。 Meteorological disasters make the maximum traffic capacity that can be accommodated in the road network changes, thereby affecting the reliability of the capacity of the road network. By analyzing the impact of unfavorable weather on the traffic network, the concept of disaster degree is used to quantitatively describe the impact of unfavorable weather on the road network. Based on the functional relationship between the probability of occurrence of unfavorable weather, the disaster degree and the traffic volume of the road network, the probability of the path and the traffic of the road network being a certain level during the emergency warning phase is obtained. Combining with the road network capacity reliability model and algorithm, Outstanding weather road network capacity reliability. Finally, the validity of the example is verified by calculation.