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从工程项目风险管理的角度出发,结合水泥混凝土路面可靠度设计的理论和方法,系统地分析了水泥混凝土路面设计中存在的不确定性因素,建立了水泥混凝土路面设计风险指标体系,确定了水泥混凝土路面设计风险预警指标及其阀值和相应的风险预警信号。应用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟的理论和方法,建立了水泥混凝土路面设计风险预警模型,从而增强了抵抗水泥混凝土路面设计风险的能力。
From the perspective of project risk management, combined with the theory and method of reliability design of cement concrete pavement, this paper systematically analyzes the uncertain factors in the design of cement concrete pavement, sets up the risk index system of cement concrete pavement design, Concrete pavement design risk early warning indicator and its threshold and the corresponding risk warning signal. Applying the theory and method of Monte Carlo simulation, the early warning model of cement concrete pavement design risk is established, which enhances the ability to resist the design risk of cement concrete pavement.