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桥梁施工中主梁线形的监测和控制,对确保大桥顺利合龙起到了至关重要的作用。在与有限元模型模拟计算方法分析比较的基础上,寻求一种具有参数估计简便、估计精度高和预报可靠等特点的ARMA模型方法。最后以某大跨度连续刚构桥为例进行了分析计算。通过对实测数据的预处理、平稳性分析、模型识别、模型检验等,得到合适的ARMA模型并结合该模型计算出预测结果。通过两种模型与实测结果差值的比较,结果表明时间序列模型的预测值与实测值吻合较好,证明了该方法的实用性。
The monitoring and control of the main girder linearity in bridge construction has played a crucial role in ensuring the smooth closure of the bridge. Based on the analysis and comparison with the finite element model simulation method, an ARMA model method with simple parameters estimation, high estimation accuracy and reliable forecasting is sought. Finally, a long-span continuous rigid frame bridge is taken as an example to analyze and calculate. Through the preprocessing of the measured data, the stability analysis, the model identification, the model test and so on, obtains the suitable ARMA model and calculates the forecast result with this model. By comparing the difference between the two models and the measured results, the results show that the predicted value of the time series model is in good agreement with the measured value, which proves the practicability of the method.