1前言全球原油最终开采能力估计在16500至32000亿桶间，大多数预测间于2－3万亿桶（表1），少数调查者定量分析了继原油产出达到高峰后全球能源供给的不同需求（Moody,1978，Bookout,1989；Stars等，1992）。目前，还没有人勾划出整个二十一世纪的能源总供给能力。本文主题就是 1 INTRODUCTION The world’s final crude oil production capacity is estimated at 165,000 to 3,200 billion barrels, with most of the forecasts at 2-3 trillion barrels (Table 1). A few surveyors quantitatively analyzed the difference in global energy supply following the crude oil output peaked Demand (Moody, 1978, Bookout, 1989; Stars et al., 1992). At present, no one has outlined the total energy supply capacity for the entire 21st century. This is the theme of this article