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本文分析了温州蜜柑早期生理落果波相特点及第一峰点幅度P、出现时间D与前期气象条件和最终产量的关系。发现P类似于“全息照相”中的一个激光点,含有极大的信息量。重点将P与前期不同时段各项气象因子进行相关普查,找出了关键期和关键因子,并建立了利用气象因子对P的分析预报模式。确立了峰点出现时及以前各类气象因子的三基点值和适宜、危害范围,不利天气条件及因子顺序为“热干风”。最后构造了产量预报流程框架以及农学气象预报模式,给出了一个全新的、具有农学基础的温州蜜柑产量气象预报模式同时,还提出了预报D的方法和关系式。
In this paper, we analyzed the characteristics of early stage physiological decollarization and the first peak amplitude P, the relationship between the emergence time D and the previous meteorological conditions and the final yield. It is found that P is similar to a laser spot in “hologram” and contains a great amount of information. P and prior periods will focus on various meteorological factors related to the census, to identify the key period and key factors, and established the use of meteorological factors on the P forecast model. The establishment of three base points and appropriate range of hazards for all kinds of meteorological factors at and before peak point, unfavorable weather conditions and order of factors are “hot dry wind”. Finally, the framework of production forecasting and agro-meteorological forecasting are constructed. A new weather forecasting model based on agronomic knowledge is given. At the same time, methods and formulas for forecasting D are also proposed.