根据对褐飞虱实验种群的观测数据和一些地区的田间种群生命表资料，结合江淮稻区水稻栽培模式和褐飞虱的发生特点，组建了江淮稻区褐飞虱种群数量动态的模拟模型。经检验，效果较好，对发生高峰期和发生量的预测均符合标准，基本上能反映该地区褐飞虱的发生趋势。灵敏度分析显示，温度是影响褐飞虱种群数量动态的最关键因素，其次为初始迁入虫量、天敌和水稻生育期。提出用后验差方法评价预测效果，结果表明，该方法适合于对褐飞虱各种发生型预测效果的检验 Based on the observation data of experimental population of N. lugens and field population life table data in some areas, combined with the rice cultivation patterns and the occurrence characteristics of BPH in Jianghuai rice paddy, a numerical simulation model of the population dynamics of BPH population in Jianghuai rice area was established. After testing, the effect is better, and the prediction of the occurrence of the peak and the amount of occurrence is in line with the standard, which can basically reflect the trend of the occurrence of the brown planthopper in the area. Sensitivity analysis showed that temperature was the most critical factor affecting the population dynamics of BPH, followed by initial migratory insects, natural enemies and rice growth period. The method of posterior difference test is used to evaluate the prediction results. The results show that this method is suitable for the test of various occurrence types of BPH