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2010年上半年天然橡胶市场在国家宏观调控政策的影响下呈现震荡回落的走势,预计下半年政策压力无法消除,市场仍将继续承压,而且全球经济形势不太乐观,市场信心受挫。尽管近期受低库存量支撑,基本面偏多,但后期供应改善后基本面也将难以形成较大支撑。全球汽车业虽然处于复苏中,但仍显得比较脆弱,国内汽车产销增速也有放缓迹象。上半年国内轮胎产量增长过快,略显过剩,后期也将呈现放慢迹象。国际原油价格继续震荡,指引性也不强。综合分析,预计下半年沪胶市场走势仍比较复杂,底部虽未探明,但19000元将是下方重要支撑,而25000元也将形成上方主要压力位。
In the first half of 2010, the natural rubber market showed a downward trend under the influence of the national macro-control policies. It is expected that the policy pressure will not be eliminated in the second half of the year and the market will continue to be under pressure. Moreover, the global economic situation is not very optimistic and market confidence is weakened. Despite the recent support by low inventory levels, the fundamentals are more, but the latter part of the fundamentals of supply improvement will be difficult to form a greater support. Although the global auto industry is recovering, it still appears to be vulnerable. The growth rate of domestic auto sales also shows signs of slowing down. The first half of the domestic tire production growth too fast, a slight surplus, the latter will also show signs of slowing down. International crude oil prices continue to shock, nor is it strong. Comprehensive analysis, the second half of the trend is still expected Hujiao market is still more complicated, although not proven at the bottom, but 19,000 yuan will be below the important support, and 25,000 yuan will also form the top of the main pressure.