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今年上半年,国内成品油产量和消费量增长明显放缓。下半年,世界经济将逐步企稳,国内经济在二季度探底后,预计三、四季度将缓慢回升;汽车市场具备稳步复苏的政策条件和经济环境,工业企业生产经营状况改善,以及房地产和建材行业有望好转,将拉动成品油需求增长有所加快,成品油资源较上半年略紧。初步分析判断,三季度成品油市场将呈现向好苗头,四季度实现稳步回升,预计下半年成品油表观消费量为1.29亿吨,同比增长3.5%,增速较上半年提高0.4个百分点,尤其是柴油需求回升势头明朗,预计增速为2.7%,较上半年提高近2个百分点。
In the first half of this year, the growth of domestic refined oil production and consumption slowed down significantly. In the second half of the year, the world economy will gradually stabilize. After the domestic economy bottoms out in the second quarter, it is expected that the auto market will pick up slowly in the third and fourth quarters. The auto market has enjoyed stable policy conditions and economic environment for recovery, improved production and operation of industrial enterprises, and real estate and building materials The industry is expected to improve, which will accelerate the growth of refined oil demand. The refined oil resources will be slightly tighter than the first half of this year. Preliminary analysis and judgment, refined oil market in the third quarter will show signs of a good start in the fourth quarter to achieve a steady rebound, apparent consumption of refined oil products is expected in the second half of 129 million tons, an increase of 3.5% growth over the first half increased 0.4 percentage points, In particular, the recovery in diesel demand is picking up. The growth rate is expected to be 2.7%, up nearly 2% from the first half of the year.