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强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线，配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测，确定了判别几年时间尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中，圈定了范围不超过10000km2的5个强震危险区，已成功地对1993年10月2日若羌6．6级地震、1995年5月2日乌苏5．8级地震和1996年3月19日阿图什地震实现了1～3年中期预测。
Prediction of strong earthquake risk area is one of the important topics in the current earthquake prediction. The author takes the early warning active fault and the early warning active fault section to study the time and space scale to solve the fault activity as the main line. In accordance with the seismic activity dynamic analysis, the early information of the seismic media, the near-field trend precursor anomaly and the hazard probability prediction, Several years time scale earthquake risk zone indicators. During the Eighth Five-year Earthquake Scientific and Technological Research project, five strong earthquake risk areas of no more than 10,000 km2 were delineated. The ROC 6.6 Earthquake on October 2, 1993, May 2, 1995 Wusu 5.8 earthquake and March 19, 1996 Atushi earthquake to achieve a 1-3 year medium-term forecast.