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近年来,土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究已成为国际的前沿和重点。在大理河流域,LUCC(包括水土保持措施)对水循环和水量平衡产生了深远影响,该流域LUCC水文效应的研究势在必行。根据研究区1990年代三期土地利用数据分析了LUCC的时空变化特征,采用特征变量时间序列法及降水-径流模型对LUCC水文效应进行了研究。结果表明:流域土地利用类型以耕地和草地为主,近10年来,耕地和草地面积有所减少,而林地和建设用地面积持续增加;流域年径流和月径流演化过程均表现出明显的下降趋势;LUCC及水土保持具有减少流域年径流、汛期流量以及增加枯季流量的作用,相对于降水因素,人类活动对流域水文的作用占主导地位;在1990~2000年期间,主要由LUCC引起的年均径流减少量达2616.6×104m3,占该期间实测减水总量的62.19%。
In recent years, the study on the hydrological effects of land use / cover change has become an international frontier and focus. In the Dali River Basin, LUCC (including soil and water conservation measures) has had a profound impact on water cycle and water balance, and the study of LUCC hydrological effects in this basin is imperative. According to the land use data of the 1990s, the spatial and temporal variations of LUCC were analyzed, and the hydrological effects of LUCC were studied by using the characteristic time series method and the rainfall-runoff model. The results showed that the main types of land use were arable land and grassland. In the past 10 years, the area of arable land and grassland decreased while the area of forest land and construction land continued to increase. Both the annual runoff and monthly runoff evolution showed obvious declines ; LUCC and soil and water conservation have the effect of reducing annual runoff, flood season flow and increasing dry season flow. Compared with precipitation, LUCC and water and soil conservation have a dominant role in basin hydrology. During the period from 1990 to 2000, LUCC mainly caused by LUCC The reduction of runoff was 2616.6 × 104m3, accounting for 62.19% of the total measured water loss during the period.