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2009年以来,政府对储备肉共实施了4次收储和3次投放,总体特点是“上半年消费淡季收储,下半年消费旺季投放”。根据ARIMA和VAR模型的计算结果,2009年1月至2012年12月,政府储备调控对猪肉价格均值影响区间为[2.08,2.41],对标准差影响区间为[1.02,1.15],总体上政府储备调控没有达到稳定猪肉价格的目的,主要原因是:政府调控同向“预期”强化价格波动,储备肉收储投放周期、养殖周期和市场价格波动周期不一致,政府储备肉调控没有发挥大型屠宰厂的作用。
Since 2009, the government has implemented a total of four reserve receipts and three launches of reserve meat. The overall characteristics are “the first half of the year consumer purchasing and purchasing in the off-season and the second half consumer season running.” According to the calculation results of ARIMA and VAR model, from January 2009 to December 2012, the influence of government reserve control on the average price of pork was [2.08,2.41] and the impact on standard deviation was [1.02,1.15]. Generally speaking, the government Reserve regulation and control did not achieve the purpose of stabilizing pork prices, mainly due to: government regulation and control “expected ” to strengthen price volatility, reserve meat storage and delivery cycle, the cycle of breeding and market price fluctuations are inconsistent, government reserve meat regulation did not play a large Slaughterhouse role.