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我们认为在当前环境下经济增速要进一步加速难度不小,但预计在房地产和消费拉动下,四季度经济保持平稳增长的可能性较大。据国家统计局2017年10月19日公布的数据显示,前三季度国内生产总值按可比价格计算,同比增长6.9%。增速与上半年持平,比去年同期加快0.2个百分点。因为前三季度累计GDP同比增速已经达到6.9%,所以全年经济增长达到6.7%以上已成定局,表明中国经济将改变2010年以来连续放缓的态势,首次出现年度同比回升。
We think it is more difficult to further accelerate the economic growth under the current environment. However, it is estimated that with the stimulation of real estate and consumption, there is a good chance that the economy will maintain steady growth in the fourth quarter. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 19, 2017, the gross domestic product in the first three quarters, at comparable prices, increased by 6.9% over the same period of previous year. The growth rate was unchanged from the first half of the year and 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Since the first three quarters of cumulative GDP growth rate has reached 6.9% year on year, so the annual economic growth of 6.7% or more is a foregone conclusion that China’s economy will change the trend of continuous slowdown since 2010, the first year of year-on-year rebound.