主持人:国家统计局发布数据显示,2011年8月份,全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨6.2%。您怎么看?杨远昌:目前物价仍处高位,但8月CPI同比涨幅相比7月6.5%已经有所降低,而此前市场普遍认为CPI数据很可能在7月份见顶,并在四季度逐步回落。目前看8月份数据的公布在一定程度上印证了上述判断,于是市场开始相信CPI拐点已经出现。但我想说的是CPI拐点出现只是一个传说。如果你搞清楚通胀成因,你就能理解这一点。当然我们可以认为CPI回落表明宏观调控效果显现,但是如果我们细细研究CPI波动曲线你就会发现,货币政策的变化对CPI波动影响呈现一个边际效用递减状态,比如说从去年开始央行连续加息以及提高存款准备金率,这些动作并没有真正阻止CPI向上波动。但是8月份全球金融市场大幅下挫后,国内CPI同比涨幅马上回落,这意味着抗通胀下的是一盘国际象棋,实际上这是我们一直坚持的主张。而这一观点已逐渐被市场所接受,比如央行副行长马德伦近期在分析这轮物价上涨的成因时特别强调输 Moderator: National Bureau of Statistics data show that in August 2011, the national consumer price index rose 6.2%. How do you think? Yang Yuanchang: Currently prices are still high, but August CPI rose 6.5% from July compared with the same period last year, which has been generally lower before the CPI data is likely to peak in July and gradually decline in the fourth quarter . At present to see the August data release to some extent confirms the above judgments, so the market began to believe that CPI inflection point has emerged. But what I want to say is that the CPI inflection point is just a legend. If you figure out the causes of inflation, you can understand that. Of course, we can think that the fall of CPI shows that macroeconomic regulation and control effects appear. However, if we carefully study the fluctuation curve of CPI, we can see that the change of monetary policy has a diminishing marginal utility effect on the fluctuation of CPI. For example, As well as raising the deposit reserve ratio, these actions did not really prevent the CPI up volatility. However, after the global financial markets plummeted in August, the year-on-year rise in domestic CPI came down immediately. This meant that anti-inflation was a chess game. In fact, this is what we have always insisted on. This view has gradually been accepted by the market, such as the Bank of China Deputy Governor Ma Delun recently in the analysis of the causes of this round of price increases with special emphasis on losing