论文部分内容阅读
宏观经济波动同步性,也称宏观经济波动的协同性,是指两个或两个以上的经济体,其宏观经济以同一频率波动的经济现象。本文以环渤海各省市为研究对象,采用动态指标对天津与环渤海各省市之间的同步性进行了考察,并对导致同步性的各因素进行了实证分析,文章的结论表明,产业结构相似度和对外贸易依存度是环渤海各省市经济同步性的主要原因。文章最后分析了天津和环渤海各省市在区域经济协调发展中面临困境以及天津的发展定位。
Synchronization of macroeconomic volatility, also known as the synergy of macroeconomic volatility, refers to the economic phenomenon in which two or more economies have macroeconomic fluctuations at the same frequency. In this paper, all provinces and cities around the Bohai Sea as the research object, the dynamic index of the provinces and cities around the Bohai Sea in Tianjin and the synchronization were investigated, and the factors that lead to synchronization were analyzed empirically, the conclusion of the article shows that similar industrial structure Degree and dependence on foreign trade is the main reason for the economic synchronicity in all provinces and cities around the Bohai Sea. Finally, the article analyzes the plight that Tianjin and the provinces and cities around the Bohai Rim are facing in the coordinated development of regional economy and the development orientation of Tianjin.