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少数民族农民的城镇移居意愿关系到我国广大民族地区新型城镇化战略的路径选择和有效实现。基于CGSS2010少数民族农村地区调查数据,建立二元Logistic回归模型,从个体、家庭和政策三个层面分析了少数民族农民城镇移居意愿的影响因素。结果表明,少数民族农民城镇移居意愿较低,且小于全国平均水平,移居层级则偏好小城镇、县城(县级市)。个体和政策层面的因素对少数民族农民城镇移居意愿没有显著影响。家庭层面因素对少数民族农民城镇移居意愿影响路径和机制较为复杂,具体表现为:信仰宗教比不信仰宗教的移居意愿更强;农业劳动力越多,相对家庭经济地位越高,少数民族农民家庭城镇移居意愿越强。
The desire of urban migrants for minority peasants has a bearing on the choice and effective realization of the new urbanization strategy in the vast minority areas in our country. Based on the survey data from the rural areas of ethnic minorities in CGSS2010, a binary Logistic regression model was established to analyze the influencing factors of the urban migrant intentions of the ethnic peasants from three levels: individual, family and policy. The results show that the willingness of ethnic minority peasants to migrate in urban areas is relatively low and less than the national average, while that of migrant workers prefers small towns and county-level cities (county-level cities). Individual and policy-level factors have no significant effect on the willingness and willingness of migrant workers in cities and towns of ethnic minorities to migrate. The influence of family-level factors on the willingness and willingness of migrant workers to migrate to cities and towns is more complicated. The concrete manifestation is that religious beliefs are more willing to migrate than those who do not believe in religion; the more agricultural laborers, the higher relative family economic status, The stronger the will to emigrate.