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采用灰色系统理论中GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对区域经济增长进行实证研究。根据吉林省“十一五”期间的有关统计数据建立灰色动态数列预测模型,并对预测模型进行检验,进而通过建立等维新陈代谢模型对吉林省“十二五”期间经济增长情况进行预测和分析,从预测分析结果得出吉林省经济在“十二五”期间将保持平稳较快发展。
An empirical research on regional economic growth is carried out by using GM (1,1) gray forecasting model in gray system theory. According to the relevant statistical data of Jilin Province during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, a gray dynamic series forecasting model was established and the forecasting model was tested. Then the economic growth of Jilin Province during the “12th Five-year Plan” period was established through the establishment of isokinetic metabolic model Forecast and analysis, from the results of the forecast analysis concluded that Jilin Province economy in the “second five” period will maintain a steady and rapid development.