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本研究主要基于《中国林业统计年鉴(2005-2010)》以及《安徽林业统计年报(2005-2011)》官方统计资料数据,对安徽省集体林权制度改革对森林资源的影响进行实证研究。文章首先采用描述统计分析的方法通过对比安徽省集体林权制度改革前后森林资源变化情况来进行研究,然后在描述统计分析的基础上,利用双重差分模型,以安徽省新一轮集体林权改革(2006)的试点县市作为实验组、2008年以后才实施集体林权改革的非试点县市作为参照组,分析安徽省集体林权制度改革对森林资源变化的净影响。结果发现,安徽省集体林权制度改革政策实施对于森林资源的影响为负,森林资源增长的目标并没有实现,从林权改革交叉项系数为负来看,我们推测安徽省集体林权改革引起对森林资源的过度采伐与破坏,森林资源保护力度不够。双重差分模型分析的结果与描述性统计分析所观察的结果大致相同。
Based on the data of official statistics of China Forestry Statistical Yearbook (2005-2010) and Anhui Forestry Statistical Yearbook (2005-2011), this study conducts an empirical study on the impact of the reform of collective forest rights system in Anhui Province on forest resources. Firstly, this paper uses the method of describing statistical analysis to study the changes of forest resources before and after the reform of collective forest rights system in Anhui Province. Based on the description of statistical analysis, this paper uses the double difference model to analyze the new round of collective forest rights reform in Anhui Province (2006) pilot counties and counties as experimental groups and non-pilot cities and counties implementing collective forest tenure reform after 2008 as a reference group to analyze the net effect of the reform of collective forest rights system in Anhui Province on changes in forest resources. The results show that the implementation of the reform policy of collective forest tenure system in Anhui Province has a negative impact on forest resources and the goal of forest resources growth has not been achieved. From the negative point of cross-term coefficient of forest tenure reform, we speculate that reform of collective forest rights in Anhui Province is caused Over-harvesting and destruction of forest resources, protection of forest resources is not enough. The results of the double-difference model analysis are roughly the same as those observed by the descriptive statistical analysis.