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目的对比天津市甲型肝炎(甲肝)与细菌性痢疾(菌痢)的流行趋势,评价疫苗接种在甲肝控制中的作用。方法运用SPSS 13.0软件多重曲线拟合的方法,比较甲肝与菌痢两种肠道传染病在实施甲肝疫苗免疫控制策略前后两个阶段流行曲线的回归模型,计算模型预测的效果。结果免疫策略控制前期(1990-1999年)甲肝和菌痢的流行曲线拟合一致,均为三次方曲线模型,回归模型拟合确定系数R2分别为0.96和0.89。免疫策略控制后期(2000-2009年)甲肝流行趋势改变为指数模型,R2=0.95,菌痢流行趋势仍为三次方曲线模型,R2=0.93。结论 2000年开始推行的甲肝疫苗免疫控制策略效果显著。
Objective To compare the prevalence of hepatitis A (hepatitis A) and bacillary dysentery (dysentery) in Tianjin and to evaluate the role of vaccination in hepatitis A control. Methods Using the multiple curve fitting method of SPSS 13.0, the regression model of epidemic curve of two kinds of intestinal infectious diseases of hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery during the two stages before and after the hepatitis A vaccine immunization control strategy was compared, and the effect of model prediction was calculated. Results The epidemic curves of hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery during the pre-immune phase control (1990-1999) were consistent with cubic curve models, and the regression coefficients were 0.96 and 0.89, respectively. The epidemiological trend of hepatitis A changed from 2000 to 2009 to exponential model (R2 = 0.95). The epidemic tendency of bacillary dysentery was still cubic curve model with R2 = 0.93. Conclusion The vaccination control strategy of hepatitis A vaccine started to be effective in 2000.