害虫发生期预测是预测预报中最绎常的工作。发生期的预测方法主要有五种,即发育进度预测法、有效积温预测法,物候预测方、经验性的温度指标法、据害虫趋性诱测法:此外还有应用数理统计的相关預测法。本文仅介绍发育进度預测法与有效积温预测法,并对其中的某些有关问题提出讨论。 Pest occurrence prediction is the most common work in forecasting and forecasting. There are five main forecasting methods at the time of occurrence, that is, the progress forecasting method, the effective temperature forecasting method, the phenological forecasting method, the empirical temperature index method, and the pest attractance detection method. In addition, there are related predictions of applying mathematical statistics law. This article only introduces the development progress forecasting method and effective accumulated temperature forecasting method, and discusses some of them.