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小麦黄矮病是我国北方麦区间歇流行的重要病毒病,陕西省曾于1966、1970、1973、1978、1980年大发生,造成小麦严重减产。因之准确的予测黄矮病的发生程度,为防治工作提供可靠依据,乃是急待解决的生产问题。作者曾就气象因素预测黄矮病的可能性及分挡统计测报法进行过讨论(《植物保护》1980年第一期)。为了进一步提高预报质量,我们对陕西省蒲城县1964年以来,与小麦黄矮病发生有关的20项气象资料作了逐步回归的分析比较。
Wheat yellow dwarf disease is an important viral disease intermittently epidemic in northern China wheat area. Shaanxi Province occurred in 1966, 1970, 1973, 1978 and 1980, causing serious wheat yield loss. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the occurrence of yellow dwarf disease provides a reliable basis for prevention and treatment, which is an urgent production problem to be solved. The authors have discussed the possibility of meteorological factors in predicting yellowish dwarf disease and the method of statistical sub-clasification (Plant Protection, 1980, issue 1). In order to further improve the forecast quality, we have made a stepwise regression analysis of 20 meteorological data related to the occurrence of wheat yellow dwarf disease in Pucheng County, Shaanxi Province since 1964.