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研究了川滇地震区强震活动期格局的变化,认为自1976年以来已进入川滇地震区的“中区”为主体活动的新活跃期,并将可能持续至少二三十年;1985～1996年初的川滇强震活跃幕已经结束,1996～2002年处于6级地震的少发时段。根据川滇中区历史上出现过的东带(E102°～103°线)、西带(E100°线)交替活动特征估计未来几年安宁河—则木河—小江地震带将可能是大地震发生带;未来康定—冕宁及巧家—东川可能先发生6级地震。
This paper studies the change of the pattern of active earthquakes during the earthquake in the Sichuan-Yunnan earthquake region and holds that the “Central Region” has entered the new active period of the main activity of the Sichuan-Yunnan earthquake area since 1976 and will probably last at least two or three decades. The active curtain of the Sichuan-Yunnan strong earthquake from 1985 to early 1996 has come to an end. From 1996 to 2002, it was in the infancy of the M6. According to the characteristics of the alternating activities in the eastern (E102 ° ~103 °) and western (E100 °) lines appearing in the history of central Sichuan, Yunnan, it is estimated that the Anning River - Zemuhe - Xiaojiang seismic belt may be a major earthquake Occurred in the future Kangding - Mianning and Qiaojia - Dongchuan may first magnitude 6 earthquake.