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目的评估零售生鸡肉中沙门菌污染的健康风险及其潜在的干预措施。方法利用零售生鸡肉中沙门菌定量监测数据以及零售和家庭生鸡肉储存加工专项调查结果,采用Monte Carlo概率评估方法,估计我国居民通过厨房内交叉污染发生鸡源性沙门菌食物中毒的风险,并评价潜在的干预措施效果。结果本研究构建了从零售到餐桌的生鸡肉-沙门菌交叉污染模型,模型估计生鸡肉经过零售储存、抵达居民家里和经过家庭储存后其沙门菌浓度(lg MPN/g)从零售前的-0.017,分别增长到2.163、2.241和3.028,估计我国居民每餐发生鸡源性沙门菌食物中毒的风险为0.171(95%置信区间:0.000~0.767),其中零售阶段生鸡肉的储存方式是影响发病风险的最重要因素(回归系数=0.72),情景分析提示,如果零售阶段采用冷冻或者冷藏储存,我国居民每餐发病风险可以降为0.031(95%置信区间:0.000~0.522)。结论我国居民鸡源性沙门菌食物中毒的风险较高,应当加强零售环节生鸡肉的冷链管理。
Objective To assess the health risk of Salmonella contamination in retail raw chicken meat and its potential interventions. Methods Based on the quantitative monitoring data of Salmonella in retail raw chicken and the investigation results of retail and household raw chicken storage and processing, the Monte Carlo probability method was used to estimate the risk of food poisoning caused by Salmonella chinensis in our country through cross contamination Evaluate the effectiveness of potential interventions. Results In this study, a cross-contamination model of raw chicken-salmonella from retail to table was constructed. The model estimated that after storage of raw chicken at home, after storage at home and after storage at home, the Salmonella concentration (lg MPN / g) 0.017, respectively, to 2.163,2.241 and 3.028 respectively. It is estimated that the risk of food-borne Salmonella food poisoning is 0.171 (95% confidence interval: 0.000 ~ 0.767) per meal in China. The storage mode of raw chicken at retail stage is affected The most important factor of risk (regression coefficient = 0.72), scenario analysis suggested that if the retail stage using frozen or cold storage, our residents risk of each meal can be reduced to 0.031 (95% confidence interval: 0.000 ~ 0.522). Conclusions The risk of food poisoning caused by Salmonella chickens in our country is high, and the cold chain management of raw chicken in retail should be strengthened.