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本文构建面板平滑转换模型,运用我国2003—2013年的省级面板数据,研究了人力资本集聚对产业结构升级的影响。结果不仅支持人力资本集聚与产业结构升级之间“U”型关系的存在,还表明人力资本集聚对产业结构升级存在经济发展水平的门限效应。当前经济较为发达的东部省份已进入人力资本集聚对产业结构升级的正向影响阶段,而中西部地区大部分省份尚未跨越经济发展水平的临界值,人力资本集聚并不利于这些省份产业结构改善。进一步,为克服由人力资本集聚与产业结构升级双向因果关系带来的内生性问题,本文构建联立方程模型重新进行检验,发现所得结果与面板平滑转换模型结果相一致,表明本文结论具有很好的稳健性。
This paper constructs the panel smooth transition model, and uses the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013 in our country to study the impact of human capital accumulation on the upgrading of industrial structure. The results not only support the existence of “U ” type relationship between the agglomeration of human capital and the upgrading of industrial structure, but also indicate the threshold effect of the level of economic development in the upgrading of industrial structure by human capital accumulation. At present, the eastern provinces with the more developed economy have already entered the stage of positive influence of the agglomeration of human capital on the upgrading of the industrial structure. However, most provinces in the central and western regions have not crossed the threshold of economic development level. Agglomeration of human capital is not conducive to the improvement of industrial structure in these provinces. Furthermore, in order to overcome the endogeneity caused by the two-way causal relationship between the accumulation of human capital and the upgrading of industrial structure, this paper constructs a simultaneous equation model and re-tests it. It is found that the obtained results are in good agreement with the panel smoothing conversion model, indicating that the conclusion of this paper is very good The robustness.