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基于面板平滑转移模型,本文采用58个国家面板数据,通过全局最优的模拟退火法(SA)和非线性最小二乘法回归,实证分析产业结构变化对工业和服务业就业的影响.研究发现:城镇化是实现产业结构工业就业效应的有效机制,城镇化通过第二产业发展和产业集聚促使劳动力由农业转向工业;企业规模是产业结构变化推动服务业就业的有效内在机制,企业生产扩张和竞争力提高使服务业就业得到优化配置.第二产业对工业就业,第三产业对服务业就业均有正向促进作用,但产业间的总体就业溢出效应为负向;产业结构调整引起的就业弹性较小,就业结构并不能跟随产业结构演变而发生质变.此外,发达国家的产业间就业溢出为负,表明在产业结构的成熟阶段,第二产业与第三产业发展存在一定的替代效应;而发展中国家的产业间就业溢出为正,表明还处于产业结构的调整阶段,拥有剩余的人力资源,可以实现工业和服务业就业“齐头并进”.
Based on the panel smooth transition model, this paper uses panel data from 58 countries to analyze the impact of industrial structure changes on employment in employment and service industry through global optimal simulated annealing (SA) and nonlinear least-squares regression. Urbanization is an effective mechanism to realize industrial employment effect in industrial structure. Urbanization promotes the transfer of labor force from agriculture to industry through the development of secondary industry and industrial agglomeration. The scale of enterprises is an effective internal mechanism to promote service employment through industrial structure changes. The expansion of production and competition of enterprises The employment of the service industry has been optimized.Employment of the secondary industry and employment of the tertiary industry have positive effect on the employment of the service industry, but the overall employment spillover effect among the industries is negative; the employment elasticity caused by the industrial structure adjustment In the meantime, the employment spillover among developed countries is negative, indicating that there is a certain substitution effect between the development of the secondary and tertiary industries in the mature stage of the industrial structure. However, The spillover of employment among developing countries is positive, indicating that they are still in the adjustment phase of the industrial structure, A surplus of human resources, industrial and service sector employment can be “go hand in hand .”