促成石油价格上涨的因素有很多,包括多年来的投资不足、被称为“上帝行为”的天灾,以及伊拉克战争等政治因素。但总的来看,弥漫在很多产油国的资源民族主义情绪仍然是油价上涨的主要原因,而高油价又导致了某些地区地缘政治的不稳定。虽然很多产油国现在都在讨好中国,但中国很快就会像其他国家一样也面临来自产油国的民族主义压力。石油消费国恰恰在供给和需求层面通过多种方法来消除油价上涨的压力。当西方国家都在担心中国对石油需求的增长会带来负面影响时,中国事实上却在投资方面做出了应有的表率作用。中国不能也不会像美国人那样消费能源:我们没有足够的能源去支撑这种消耗方式。中国必须找到适合自己的可持续性发展道路。这其中一个关键的基础就是要实现石油价格完全市场化,没有什么能像价格一样指导人们做出正确的选择。目前人们对于生物燃料的追捧将会冷却。从木屑和垃圾中分解乙醇的想法很不错,但落实到技术层面还需要很多年的发展;而从玉米或甜菜中分解乙醇的主意远没有人们现在想的那么好。事实表明,对以玉米为原料生产的乙醇进行补贴的方式对能源危机的解决于事无补。 There are many factors contributing to rising oil prices, including underinvestment over many years, natural disasters known as “God’s actions,” and political factors such as the Iraq war. However, on the whole, the sentiment of resource nationalism that is pervasive in many oil-producing countries is still the main reason for rising oil prices, which in turn has led to geopolitical instability in some areas. Although many oil-producing countries are now curry favor with China, China will soon face the same pressures from other oil-producing nations as nationalism. The oil-consuming countries are eliminating the pressure of rising oil prices through a variety of methods at the supply and demand levels. When Western countries were worried that China would have a negative impact on the growth of oil demand, China actually made its due contribution to the investment. China can not and will not consume energy like Americans do: We do not have enough energy to support this pattern of consumption. China must find its own path of sustainable development. One of the key foundations is that the full marketization of oil prices will not guide people to the right choices at the same price. At present, people’s pursuit of biofuels will be cooled down. The idea of ​​breaking down ethanol from sawdust and garbage is good, but it will take years to implement it, and the idea of ​​breaking down ethanol from corn or sugar beet is far less well-devised. Facts have shown that the way subsidies for ethanol produced from corn does not help solve the energy crisis.